PakNatSec

"Pakistan differentiates between the Afghan Taliban, the TTP and the Pashtuns because the problem is in Pashtun areas but the majority of Pashtuns want an end to the violence. Given the large Pashtun population in Pakistan and across Pakistan’s borders in southern Afghanistan, Pakistan does not want the present situation to turn into or be turned into an anti Pakistan struggle by the Pashtuns at any stage."

Highly insightful forum post from the Pakistani think tank Spearhead Research: The US Strategy Review

Kudos, Peter Bergen:

"Al-Qaeda and similar groups will, in time, collapse from irrelevance and non-support unless continually given new life by outside events. The war in Iraq was one such event. Guantánamo was another gift. Episodes such as the “Ground Zero mosque” controversy and the threatened burning of Korans by a church in Florida receive front-page treatment in the Muslim world—and are profoundly counterproductive. Raising the temperature only delays the day of reckoning; indeed, the temperature should be lowered as much as possible. This means pressing as best we can in an evenhanded way for a settlement of the conflicts between Israel and the Palestinians and between India and Pakistan—both of which inflame Muslim passions. We should also uphold American values about human rights and the rule of law. Some will loudly brand any effort to lower the temperature as “appeasement.” It is not. It is wisdom."

Complete article: Bin Laden's Lonely Crusade | Politics | Vanity Fair

The news of Canadian military in Afghanistan having leased some Russian Mi-17 helicopters is the latest to surface in a string of similar development. Says Ricks:

"My guess is that because both the Afghan and Pakistani militaries use the Mi-17, this makes it more convenient to fly NATO forces across the border and into the FATA as necessary, with lots of plausible deniability, especially if they are flown at night and no one gets around to painting a lot of markings on the aircraft. That would explain why, as the Canadian report puts it, 'details were kept off the MERX web-site, which formally lists government procurement competitions, and no news release was issued about the new choppers, which have been in use since the spring.'"

Report: Canadian military leasing Russian Mi-17 helos in Afghanistan - By Tom Ricks | The Best Defense:

At long last, the world starts to understand alQaeda:

"[Today's alQaeda is] a global, fluid, and adaptive amoeba: a kind of collectively self-aware organism, one that closely monitors what Western experts are saying about it -- and plots ways to turn those ideas against the United States."

Will this flash of comprehension go mainstream, or is it destined for oblivion? Only time will tell. Complete article: Watching the Watchers - By Jarret Brachman | Foreign Policy

"[I]n April this year, [Saif al-Adel] was released from Iranian custody along with Saad bin Laden, Osama bin Laden's son, and top al-Qaeda operatives Suleiman al-Gaith and Mahfouz al-Walid.

"Iran swapped the terrorists for Heshmatollah Attarzadeh, a Pakistan-based diplomat kidnapped by al-Qaeda last year.

"Little is known about the shadowy al-Adel, who is also known by the names Muhammad al-Makkawi and Ibrahim al-Madani. Born in Egypt, al-Adel is said to have served as a colonel in its Special Forces. He was, however, arrested in 1987 along with several jihadists.

"Egyptian prosecutors claimed that al-Adel's plans included crashing an aircraft into the Egypt's parliament, or driving a bomb-laden truck into the building – both tactics al-Qaeda later used to devastating effect."

Osama bin Laden appoints new commander to spearhead war on West - Telegraph.

"If Obama's generals have their way -- and in an eerie parallel of the way things work in Islamabad, they are increasingly calling the shots in the relationship -- the war in Afghanistan could drag on indefinitely. Pakistan will dig in its heels, as will other regional powers. Taliban attacks will multiply, and the U.S. military and the CIA will escalate their actions along (and maybe even across) the Pakistani border. We are at the cusp of either a broader peace in the region or an ever-widening chaos. It's Obama's choice."

The Road to Kabul Runs Through Kashmir - By Ahmed Rashid | Foreign Policy

Finally, some genuine outrage over the steady terror strikes that have been bleeding Pakistan for years now - and the unmistakable callousness of the official response. Thank you, Musharraf Zaidi.

"Three years since the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) launched this war into a different, much bloodier dimension, the official response to this mayhem seems only to show Pakistan still has no counter-terrorism strategy. As always, the only certainties in the aftermath of terror in Pakistan were two things. First, Pakistani leaders would fall over themselves to repeat platitudes about terrorism in Pakistan and how very strongly they condemn this kind of thing. Second, this will all happen again, very soon.

"How strongly did the terrorist attack in Darra Adam Khel register within the Pakistani discourse? The customary thing in Pakistan after a terrorist attack is a casual, 'oh-no-not-again.' It's casual because you simply cannot expend all your energy lamenting one terrorist attack, when you know there is another just around the corner. We have to conserve our outrage and our routine condemnations for these events, because, let's face it, there will never be a Pakistani 9/11. We've never built anything quite so magnificent and meaningful as the World Trade Center, or the Pentagon. So we stutter and stumble. From one kind of 9/11 to the next."

The piece, 'All calculus, no answers', contributed to the AfPak Channel is as readable as it is thought-provoking.

PakNatSec shares Zaidi's consternation over the fact that almost a decade into the war on terror and three years since the TTP's open declaration of war on Pakistan, the 'front-line state' is blundering about without any visible counter-terrorism strategy. In fact, the analysis of the 'pattern of attack' is itself missing - unless you take for analysis the wild conspiracy theories doing the rounds of the Internet and the Urdu press.

Consider, for instance, the November 5 attacks targeting two mosques in the northwest. Where is the analysis involving questions like how - if at all - are the two attacks linked together; how do they fit into the overall pattern (or patterns?) - if any - of terror hits; what can we learn from the pattern(s) about the perpetrators, their capacity, their strategy, their aims; and so forth? Or - if any or all of these questions are misplaced - analysis leading us to the right questions to ask?

Any eventual strategy to combat terrorism must be preceded by and based on sound, in-depth, exhaustive, sustained analysis; and much if not all of that analysis must come from, blend into, an filter through to public discourse. For, Pakistan's success in the war on terror will take not just all sorts of Pakistanis - it will take every last one of us.

'The Best Defense' is the Foreign Policy Magazine's national security blog. The author, Thomas E. Ricks, is a much-decorated defense reporter and author. In this blog post dated November 3, 2010, he gives us a long quote 'from a friend who can't be identified, but who is in a position to understand this'. To quote from the quote:

"Pakistan is an artificial construct whose legitimacy as an independent nation-state is increasingly called into question -- not only by some in the international community, but by increasing numbers of their own population. The largest Muslim nation in the subcontinent is not Pakistan, but India. Muslims live well -- indeed, on average, better -- in India than in Pakistan. This is not lost on the Pakistanis. Prognostications for India over the coming fifty years are pretty rosy from an economic perspective. That can hardly be said for Pakistan -- whose Punjabi elites control but a mere sliver of land between India and the FATA region to the north and west -- largely peopled by the Pashtuns. Further to the west are the Baluchis -- no friend of the Punjabis either and eager to go their own way.
"Given all of this, what if the U.S. finally decided to take into account the strategic culture of the region and decided to go over the heads of both the Pakistani and Afghan governments and make the following offer. The Durand Line is no more. We support the existence of a free and independent Pashtunistan and Baluchistan. Moreover, we could invite India to assist in this with Muslim Indian troops. It worked in Bangladesh. Why not here"

What is the significance of this? Chiefly this:

1. PakNatSec has been picking up for a while signs of a 'Pashtunistan Plan' brewing somewhere. This post by Tom Ricks makes it clear beyond an iota of doubt that someone somewhere is contemplating the bogeyman of Pashtunistan to push Pakistan to the wall;
2. For reasons that may not be elaborated here and now, PakNatSec is inclined to think this friend of Tom Ricks, 'who can't be identified, but who is in a position to understand [Counter Terrorism & Counter Insurgency]', is somebody fairly high in the U.S. military hierarchy. The 'Pashtunistan Plan', therefore, is a brainchild not of the U.S. political leadership or the CIA but of Pentagon; and
3. When the earlier pointers are re-evaluated in light of this revelation, is looks very likely that the plan is already in motion - and that securing White House approval is the next item on the Pentagon agenda.

The Ricks' post is here: What Joe Biden doesn't get: Why CT alone isn't the answer in Afghanistan.

Given that the collective security of the world is a direct measure of the security of individual nations, every nation of the world has an interest in the national security of every other.

Allowing for varying stakes in global security for various nations commensurate to their commercial and economic interests, we inevitably reach the conclusion that the United States’ stake in global security – and by extension in any nation’s security – is the largest. The United States, therefore, has the largest interest in Pakistan’s national security.

Taking geographical proximity and cultural affinity into account, India and Afghanistan emerge as the greatest well-wishers of Pakistan. On the whole, however, every nation of the world needs Pakistan’s national security.

Ever since their landing in Afghanistan, our allies have badgered Pakistan to make no distinction between Pakistani and Afghan Taliban; and they have made every possible distinction between the two loosely affiliated groups - to the extent of pressing us hard and consistently to attack the Afghan Taliban at the expense of our own struggle with the domestic baddies in Swat, South Waziristan, Orakzai, and everywhere else.

More recently, their strategy in Afghanistan has apparently shifted. The Karzai government, they insist, is holding talks with them, purportedly with a view to reaching agreement over a future political dispensation. The Pentagon approves and the State Department appreciates this moment of truth.

Happy ending, right? All parties embracing one another in an inclusive peace for the cameras, and all the accompanying nonsensical political oratory before the Afghan factions return to another round of mutual bloodletting? Wrong.

Our allies' obsession with Pakistan zapping the Afghan Taliban shows no signs of wearing away; they would (still) have Islamabad search and destroy the Afghan Taliban, although they highly appreciate the Karzai-led Kabul befriending them.

Heck, this is getting far too disconcerting; what was that strategic saw again? The frenemy of my frenemy is my frenemy?

So was Michael D. Furlong, senior Pentagon official who set up a network of private contractors to spy in Afghanistan and Pakistan beginning last year, an overzealous patriot who overstepped the line - or is he being scapegoated to save more consequential personages or corporations? Only time will tell.

A Pentagon inquiry into the matter prompted by a March expose by NYT says he acted without authorization; he 'deliberately misled' senior generals; and that further investigation of his actions is warranted.

Says the new NYT report: "[W]hen Gen. David H. Petraeus, then the top commander in the region, signed off on Mr. Furlong’s operation in January 2009, there were specific prohibitions against intelligence-gathering, including hiring agents to provide information about enemy positions in Pakistan."

Also, "Mr. Furlong’s network, composed of a group of small companies that used agents deep inside Afghanistan and Pakistan to collect intelligence on militant groups, operated under a $22 million contract run by Lockheed Martin."

The NYTimes.com report is here: Inquiry Finds U.S. Official Set Up Spy Ring in Asia

Hawks inside the American media, think tanks, and policy circles have long advocated an openly hostile approach to Pakistan. Of late, this hawkish mindset is becoming more rampant by the hour. The NewsWeek article "Tortured Ties: Is Pakistan a U.S. Ally or Not?" is a must-read for Pakistani strategists. Says the piece, jointly authored by Nisid Hajari and Ron Moreau:

"According to a source involved in the discussions, administration officials have reluctantly begun to consider options for stepping up the campaign against the Haqqanis. These include sending U.S. Special Operations Forces across the border, and even launching a full-scale bombing campaign."

...and:

"[W]e have to pursue our interests as ruthlessly as we can, regardless of whether they damage Pakistan’s interests or its ego."

Here is a rambling piece of propaganda masquerading as journalism without any solid premise or substance - but what would you expect of Radio Free Europe - a media outlet funded for a long time by the CIA and then the State Department?

The piece starts off with "Pashtuns straddling the Pakistani-Afghan border", but quickly deserts the Afghan Pashtuns and degenerates into Pakistan bashing. Interestingly, it does not criticize the U.S.-backed "negotiations between the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban" - but roundly mauls Pakistan's push for "a greater voice for Afghanistan's Pashtuns".

All in all, the intent of the piece is totally in line with the U.S. policy priority of putting pressure on Pakistan for the real or perceived ills of the country's policies towards Afghanistan - and the strategy of stacking the Pashtuns against the government.

The article concludes:

"Now everyone is discussing reports of peace negotiations between the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban. Much to the bewilderment of Pakistan's Pashtuns, the government in Pakistan has been urging a greater voice for Afghanistan's Pashtuns vis-a-vis the country's ethnic Uzbeks and Tajiks. And Pakistan's Pashtuns watch, wait, and wonder what will become of them if the Taliban returns to power in Kabul."

If one may ask, how will a greater voice for the Afghan Pashtuns in the affairs of that country hurt Pakistani Pashtuns? Why is the U.S.-backed Afghan initiative to include Pashtuns good, but Pakistan's long-standing support for that cause bad?

Reported American security presence in Pakistan includes a private spy network deployed by the Pengaton; J-SOC units (supported by contractors like Xe); and a clandestine CIA force made up of Afghan nationals - in addition of course to formal CIA presence. The WSJ now reports our friends in Washington DC are pressing for "Wider CIA Role". What kind of an expansion could they be seeking?

"The current efforts to expand CIA presence are meant to expand intelligence collection and facilitate more aggressive Pakistani-led actions on the ground. Some U.S. officials, however, remain hopeful that Islamabad will allow a greater covert presence that could include CIA paramilitary forces."

This HuffingtonPost piece includes nothing to warrant the sensational headline: CIA And Pakistan Locked In Aggressive Spy Battles. It could be that the editors deleted the revelations - but forgot to revise the headline? The intro hints at precisely that possibility.

"Publicly, the U.S. credits Pakistan with helping kill and capture many al-Qaida and Taliban leaders. Privately, the relationship is often marked by mistrust and double-dealing as Pakistan runs double agents against the CIA and the agency tries to penetrate Pakistan's closely guarded nuclear program."

Not a word beyond this about the CIA efforts to crack "Pakistan's closely guarded nuclear program"!

"The new aid package, totaling $2 billion, is meant to replace one that expired Oct. 1. It would complement $7.5 billion in aid that the United States has already pledged to Pakistan for civilian projects, some have which have been directed toward helping the nation recover from the damaging floods."

NYT Report: U.S. Offers Pakistan Army $2 Billion Aid Package

This McClatchy Newspapers story lays bare the features of a U.S. psychological operation unfolding in the region: "US Officials, Experts: No High-Level Afghan Peace Talks Under Way"

Says the report, carrying joint: byline of Jonathan S. Landay and Warren P. Strobel:

'...experts said the reports, which appeared in a number of U.S. media outlets, could be part of a U.S. "information strategy" to divide and weaken the Taliban leadership. "This is a psychological operation, plain and simple," said a U.S. official with firsthand knowledge of Afghan President Hamid Karzai's outreach effort.'

This HuffPost piece may be read as an Indian analyst pushing her country's anti-Pakistan agenda by taking a swipe at Pakistan's army and democracy in one go; however, the context dictates that we see in the light of a concerted effort to push the Pakistan military into politics - which would be catastrophic not just for the military but also for the country.

For the record, Gen. Kayani is known as a thorough professional who has done a great deal to wean the military away from politics. That the Zardari-led civilian government is still in-charge is thanks in no small part to Kayani's rock-solid support for constitutionalism.

Foreign Policy Magazine has published a curtain raiser to the Pak-U.S. strategic dialog by David Rothkopf. Says the writer:

"The Pakistani delegation will nominally be led by the country's foreign minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi. But the real focus will be the man who many feel is so powerful that the fact he is not yet president reflects only a personal choice on his part. As Pakistan's top military officer, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani might as well be known as General Plan B. If the current government stumbles, if unrest spreads, U.S. officials are fully counting on him to step in and put a lid on the problem."

This begs a question: How long have 'U.S. officials' been egging on Gen. Kayani to lord over the country's civilian government - and to stand ready to 'step in and put a lid on the problem', 'if the current government stumbles, if unrest spreads', etc.? On an optimistic note, Gen. Kayani must be a man of parts through and through to have withstood this kind of temptation, to have made 'a personal choice' to be 'not yet president'.

"Climate change, Deforestation and Corruption Combine to Drown Pakistan", says this piece carried by Scientific American. The prospect is grim as it is real. Is there anything we can do about it?

"What you don’t understand is that after a bloody partition 63 years ago, four hot wars, in one of which an Indian army invaded East Pakistan and dismembered our country in 1971, we are in a cold war every bit as serious to us as your cold war against the Communists. As you well remember, in a cold war you probe for weakness along the perimeters, as you did with Contras in Nicaragua and other proxy wars. Your endearment of India may come at our expense. All right, we have stung them from time to time, as they are stinging us in stirring up Balochistan."

NYTimes.com: I.H.T. Op-Ed Contributor - Talking at Cross-Purposes

This piece from Secrecy News is a perfect example of democracy at work.

"The Pentagon’s heavy-handed attempt to censor the new Afghanistan war memoir “Operation Dark Heart” by Anthony Shaffer has predictably turned a volume of narrow, specialized interest into a mainstream bestseller.

It has also focused attention on just what information the government was seeking to conceal, and why. For a review of the material that was blacked out in the second edition of the book, see “Censored book masks sensitive operations” by Sean D. Naylor, Army Times, October 4. A side-by-side view of the book’s Index, in censored and uncensored formats, is here (pdf)."

Operation Dark Heart: The Aftermath | Secrecy News:

"Two histories of the early decades of MI-6, the United Kingdom’s foreign intelligence service, have recently been published. “MI6: The History of the Secret Intelligence Service 1909-1949″ by Keith Jeffery is the authorized version, prepared with the cooperation of the Service. “Six: A History of Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service” by Michael Smith is the unauthorized version."

Thank you, Secrecy News: The History of MI-6, Authorized and Unauthorized

"Senior US officials have long said they didn’t expect the Taliban to talk peace as long as the militants believed they were winning, and at least some administration officials had been cool to peace feelers put forth by Karzai.

That changed publicly on Thursday, when US Secretary Robert Gates and US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton backed exploratory talks between the Afghan government and the militants."

Dawn.com story: Nato has facilitated Taliban movement: Petraeus

If you are ambivalent about drone attacks, this one may tip you over. I for one am converted. Kudos, Johann Hari.

"I detest jihadism. Their ideology is everything I oppose distilled: Their ideal society is my Hell. It is precisely because I want to really undermine them -- rather than pose as macho -- that I am against this robot slaughter. It enlarges the threat. It drags us into a terrible feedback loop, where the US launches more drone attacks to deal with jihadism, which makes jihadism worse, which prompts more drone attacks, which makes jihadism worse -- and on and on, in a state with nuclear weapons, and with many people in Europe who are from the terrorized region. It could be poised to get even worse: Bob Woodward's Obama's Wars says the US has an immediate plan to bomb 150 targets in Pakistan if there is a jihadi attack inside America."

Obama's Escalating Robot War in Pakistan Is Making a Terror Attack More Likely.

The opening is innocent enough - Muslims as victims of terror - and the build up is equally innocuous: "Today's narrative about so-called Islamic violence is often paired with cries against Muslims not combating evil 'within their midst.'"

But then there is this sting in the tail: "However, it is usually forgotten that it was the Muslims themselves who defeated the Wahabi rhetoric and their violence in 1818, when Saud and his forces were expelled by the Ottoman forces.

"While Muslims soundly defeated terrorism 200 years ago, history shows that it was Western powers who revived it and supported Wahabi extremism. With the Treaty of Darin, the British chose to make the Saud family and the Wahabi ideology a British protectorate and supported them as they killed Muslims and destroyed tombs, just like the ones in Pakistan. After capturing Makkah and Medina, where Wahabi's razed and disinterred the graves of the Prophet Muhammad's (AS) family and companions in 1925, it was the British government which was the first to recognize the Wahabi state."

Who is this Yusril Kidwai HuffPo introduces as "Muslim historian, Sufi, and award-winning blogger"? His discourse is not sufi, his line of argument portends fire and brimstone. His piece at HuffPo: Recent Shrine Bombings Remind Us That Muslims Are Victims of Terrorism Too.

SPIEGEL ONLINE has published a very interesting interview of outgoing U.S. National Security Advisor James Jones. Excerpt:

If the Pakistanis are going to be a partner in the long term, they have to make a commitment that shows the watching world that they are serious about forms of terrorism.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Should your cooperation with the Pakistani army fail, is there a possibility that Pakistan would become the next military target of the US?

Jones: I am going to take the optimistic view that rational people do rational things and that -- with the help of friends and allies and common goals -- Pakistan will avoid, or hopefully avoid, that unfortunate eventuality. But hope is not a strategy, so we have to be cognizant of the fact that there are things which could happen that could alter the relationship if we are not careful.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Can you define exactly who is the enemy in the Hindu Kush region today?

Jones: Our enemies are the radicals who are targeting not only the US but also Europe, who advocate violence and who want to bring harm to our way of life and the world as we know it today. This is not a threat which is going to go away in the near future. This is a 21st-century-reality, a struggle at least for the first half of the century.

Full story at SPIEGEL ONLINE: 'Hope Is Not a Strategy': Outgoing Security Advisor Jones Voices Concern on Pakistan.

"The Taliban commander in Kunar, like others interviewed in recent days, said he remained opposed to the presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan and had no plans to stop fighting them. But 'the ISI wants us to kill everyone—policemen, soldiers, engineers, teachers, civilians—just to intimidate people,' the commander said.

He said he refused, and that the ISI had tried to arrest him. 'Afghans are all brothers; tomorrow we could be sitting together in one room.'"

Pakistan Urges On Taliban - WSJ.com

"...in Pakistan, where the corrupt and effete civilian government led by President Asif Ali Zardari, the jihad-motivated army led by General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the uncontrolled ISI, the profiteering hypocrite political parties and the jingoist media unanimously support extremism and terrorism, mysterious militants continued torching NATO oil tankers in different parts of the country...", says Abdulhadi Hairan; and he concludes: "The international community must do something to stop Pakistan's support for terrorism."

What a mouthful. Read the story at Huffingtom Post: The Unpeaceful Karzai-Taliban 'Peace Talks'.

Splendid piece by Musharraf Zaidi:"Pakistani anti-Americanism comes from a sustained narrative in which Pakistan is the undignified and humiliated recipient of U.S. financial support -- provided at the expense of Pakistani blood. This may not be reflective of the intentions of Obama's war, but it is reflective of the outcome of this war on main street in Pakistan. And perception is reality.
...
"Pakistanis will not come away from reading Obama's Wars with any confidence in the warm sincerity of Hillary Clinton's multiple visits to the country to build bridges and spur the U.S. public diplomacy machine. Instead, the suspicious instincts of Pakistanis will be vindicated. The irony could not be richer. No U.S. administration has ever invested so much effort and time in trying to understand and accommodate Pakistan's complex realities into its own calculus. Woodward's book confirms what this outpouring of U.S. interest and attention is all about: It is about fear."
Read at Foreign Policy: Reading Woodward in Karachi - By Mosharraf Zaidi

"The plot apparently called for several gunmen to fan out across Germany, Britain and France in hopes of launching attacks similar not only to the Mumbai assault but also to so-called "swarm attacks" that extremists have mounted in Kabul and other Afghan cities. The tactic calls for small teams with automatic rifles, grenade launchers and suicide vests to strike simultaneously at several targets in a city and cause as much havoc as possible before they can be killed or captured." Huffington Post story: Pakistan Terrorism Training: Dozens Of Europeans Visiting.

"U.S. officials indicated that the administration has begun to contemplate the effects of a change, engineered through Zardari's resignation as head of his political party, the dissolution of the current coalition government, or a call for new elections under the Pakistani constitution, rather than any overt action by the military. Some suggested that a new, constitutionally-approved government that was more competent and popular, and had strong military backing, might be better positioned to support U.S. policies." Washington Post story: U.S. tense over Pakistan

In case you did not know, former strongman Musharraf is a big political thinker, witness this AP story: The Associated Press: Musharraf: Pakistan's military need political role.

In my opinion, this guys needs a real big shut-up call - from none other than the Pakistani military. Would they oblige?

"Scores of armed antigovernment groups, some of them far more radical, have formed or been revived during the Obama years, according to law-enforcement agencies and outside watchdogs. A six-month TIME investigation reveals that recruiting, planning, training and explicit calls for a shooting war are on the rise, as are criminal investigations by the FBI and state authorities. Readier for bloodshed than at any time since at least the confrontations in the 1990s in Ruby Ridge, Idaho, and Waco, Texas, the radical right has raised the threat level against the President and other government targets."

For more, see the Time story "The Secret World of Extreme Militias"

"Two retired Pakistani senior army officers said they believed that the video was credible.

“It’s authentic,” said Javed Hussain, a former Special Forces brigadier. “They are soldiers in Swat. The victims appear to be militants or their sympathizers.” The executioners were infantry soldiers, he said. “It’s shocking, not expected of a professional, disciplined force.”

A retired lieutenant general, Talat Masood, also said the video seemed credible. “It will have a serious setback in the effort for winning the hearts and minds so crucial in this type of warfare,” he said."

Read the complete story at NYT: Video Hints at Executions by Pakistanis

"In recent days, American military helicopters have launched three airstrikes into Pakistan that military officials estimate killed more than 50 people suspected of being members of the militant group known as the Haqqani network, which is responsible for a spate of deadly attacks against American troops."
Complete story at New York Times: C.I.A. Steps Up Drone Attacks on Taliban in Pakistan

"Safe havens would no longer be tolerated, Obama had decided. "We need to make clear to people that the cancer is in Pakistan," he declared during an Oval Office meeting on Nov. 25, 2009, near the end of the strategy review. The reason to create a secure, self-governing Afghanistan, he said, was "so the cancer doesn't spread there.""
Washington Post excerpts Bob Woodward's "Omaba Wars".

"The general claims that recent months have seen a steady increase of violent clashes in the east that have yielded a higher ratio of Pakistanis and other foreigners among the insurgent casualties. That, he says, is proof of the nominally Kashmir-oriented group's growing involvement in Afghanistan. The trend is confirmed by U.S. military officials, who say that well-trained LeT fighters are bringing deadlier tools and tactics to the war's second-fiercest front."
Pakistani Insurgent Group Expands in Afghanistan - TIME

"In urging you to halt your violence and re-consider your aims and strategy, I believe I am merely expressing the views of the vast majority of Muslims who wish to see their religion regain the respect it has lost and who long to carry the name of "Muslim" with pride."
An Open Letter to Osama bin Laden -- by Noman Benotman | The AfPak Channel

"By accepting that the Taliban would overrun Kandahar and other big population centres, the US would threaten the Taliban only if it allowed al Qa'eda to reform or if the movement started to encroach northwards." Nato urged to allow partition of Afghanistan - Telegraph

"Now is perhaps the worst time for any politician to be in government. If the army were to mount a takeover at this juncture it would quickly see the public's goodwill evaporate. That makes a return to military rule unlikely. But with future events in this country always hard to predict, rumours of a coup are certain to continue."

Is Pakistan heading for a coup? | Mustafa Qadri | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

Sloppy job, Ambassador. Your rhetoric ('...paraded him down Broadway and deservedly hanged him from the highest flagpole in lower Manhattan'; and 'Until its leadership is ... disemboweled') would put Ayman al- Zawahiri to shame, and your Sophistry ('After what this nation has sacrificed since 9/11, Americans deserve better') would do a third-world demagogue proud.

But you deliver unsubstantiated blanket statements ('...the Obama Administration has begun to effectively turn the tables on the organization'), and you reach no clear conclusion.

Are you not playing to too many galleries? Why must you piggy-back your 'original' ideas on a sacred day like 9/11? Americans - and the rest of us - indeed deserve better.
Read the Article at HuffingtonPost

"The Pakistan army is unlikely to change its assessment of the threat from India despite heavy demands on its troops to provide flood relief while also fighting Islamist militants, a senior security official said", says the Reuters story No change seen in Pakistan's view of India threat.

If one may ask, what have the Indians done to deserve such a a re-appraisal? Have they demobilized their Pakistan-specific forces and sent the men to staff candy factories? Have they dismantled their nukes and used the scrap to make trikes for Pakistani children? Is the RAW now taken to social development work? Have they pulled out of Kashmir?

The tack? An earlier speculative story from the WSJ: "The Wall Street Journal said this month Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency had decided -- for the first time in the country's history -- that Islamist militants had overtaken India as the greatest threat to national security."

In “The Twilight of the Bombs,” the fourth and final volume of his epic history of the nuclear era, author Richard Rhodes examines “how the dangerous post-Cold War transition was managed, who its heroes were, what we learned from it, and where it carried us.” ...

“In 1999, for the first time in human history, infectious diseases no longer ranked first among causes of death worldwide” thanks to the discipline of public health. In a similarly efficacious way, he says, the ingredients of the analogous discipline of public safety against nuclear weapons “have already begun to assemble themselves: materials control and accounting, cooperative threat reduction, security guarantees, agreements and treaties, surveillance and inspection, sanctions, forceful disarming if all else fails.”

Secrecy News story :The Twilight of the Bombs | Secrecy News

"The payments are long-standing in many cases and designed to help the agency maintain a deep roster of allies within the presidential palace. Some aides function as CIA informants, but others collect stipends under more informal arrangements meant to ensure their accessibility, a U.S. official said. Washington Post story: CIA making secret payments to members of Karzai administration:

"Faced with bigger worries and less reliable neighbors, the U.S. and NATO appear willing to accept growing Russian influence. 'At this point, we can't afford to be too selective in terms of where we get help,' says one Western diplomat in Kabul. Indeed, the gathering flurry of activity in Afghanistan is a sign: Russia is back."

Read the whole story: Russia Returns to Afghanistan with the U.S.'s Blessing - TIME:

"Hard-line religious groups have jumped into the void of state aid. Among the Islamic groups handing out aid to the flood victims is Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the organization that's widely considered a front for Lashkar-e-Taiba, which is blamed for the 2008 terrorist attack on Mumbai. JuD often uses other names to disguise its presence." t r u t h o u t has the story.

"[W]hile the release of these documents provides only a tantalizing glimpse into a program that is still shrouded in secrecy, it also provides some much needed information to be used in an attempt to compel the Polish government, the Romanian government and, most of all, the US government, to stop pretending either that these prisons did not exist, or that "we need to look forward as opposed to looking backwards," and to come clean about both the prisons and the men held there." t r u t h o u t | New Evidence About Prisoners Held in Secret CIA Prisons in Poland and Romania

"It is not in our interests to be at loggerheads with a country which is so important to the outcome in Afghanistan and so essential to our national security," Campbell said. Lord Tebbit condemns 'sloppy' Cameron Pakistan terror claim | Politics | guardian.co.uk

"U.S. policymakers have seemingly concluded that they have more options and less risk by engaging Pakistan. They tried isolating Pakistan and found that course was neither wise nor sustainable. As a result, the Washington has opted to shower Pakistan with aid and hope that persistent persuasion will eventually result in greater Pakistani action against the Afghan Taliban." This Week at War: Pakistan Is Winning the War in Afghanistan - By Robert Haddick | Foreign Policy

"However illegally these documents came to light, they raise serious questions about the reality of America's policy toward Pakistan and Afghanistan," said Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman John Kerry, D-MA. "Those policies are at a critical stage and these documents may very well underscore the stakes and make the calibrations needed to get the policy right more urgent." Pakistani envoy rejects Wikileaks Afghan war information | The Cable

"Other information that has now emerged about Amiri suggests that the story that he was a long-term CIA asset was a falsehood aimed at sowing distrust of Amiri in Tehran." t r u t h o u t | Clues Suggest Amiri Defection Was an Iranian Plant

“They would not be militias,” said Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon spokesman, at a briefing in Washington on Wednesday. “These would be government-formed, government-paid, government-uniformed local police units who would keep any eye out for bad guys — in their neighborhoods, in their communities — and who would, in turn, work with the Afghan police forces and the Afghan Army, to keep them out of their towns.” Afghans to Form Local Forces to Fight Taliban - NYTimes.com

"The case has emerged as a source of embarrassment for both governments. The Obama administration faces the departure of someone whose defection had been considered an intelligence coup. Iran described Amiri's desire to the leave the United States as a setback for American efforts, but Amiri may have compromised the secrecy of Iran's nuclear endeavors." Iranian nuclear scientist heads homeward in anger (Washington Post)

As the United States seeks to end a four-decade Jewish settlement enterprise, the American Treasury helps sustain the settlements through tax-exempt funds. NYTimes.com

"[A] senior White House official suggested using General McChrystal’s exit as an excuse for a housecleaning, according to senior officials. That was rejected as too disruptive during a military campaign that relies heavily on civilian support, these people said." After Afghan Shift, Top U.S. Civilians Face Tricky Future - NYTimes.com

"...Human Terrain System, a U.S. Army-funded program launched in Iraq and expanded in Afghanistan ... pairs social scientists with warfighters. Its backers contend that civilian specialists — particularly anthropologists — with in-depth field experience are best suited to "map" the country's complex tribal structures and fault lines. In turn, they can identify key power brokers and projects needed to build public support that will marginalize the Taliban, advancing the Pentagon's counterinsurgency." Should Anthropologists Help the U.S. Contain the Taliban? - TIME

"[I]n paying off Afghans to protect our supply lines, we have created a vast slush fund for bribery, extortion, heroin trafficking and murder. And it's all but certain that some of the money ends up in the pockets of the Taliban. In other words, we're paying for the bullets and bombs that kill our own soldiers." TIME

"The war must be won by civilians and off the battlefield. Victory this time may well be an orderly disengagement for the United States and the prevention of the ‘descent into chaos' in both Afghanistan and Pakistan." Shuja Nawaz | The AfPak Channel

"President Hamid Karzai has lost faith in the US strategy in Afghanistan and is increasingly looking to Pakistan to end the insurgency, ...." The Guardian

"The weakness of President Hamid Karzai that has led many journalists to dub him the "Mayor of Kabul" is little different structurally from those medieval European kings, who also held their capitals but did not rule their people. Similarly, Karzai's adoption of a patrimonial model of the state, in which offices and resources are redistributed on a personal basis to buy the support of existing power-holders or play them off against one another has more in common with the Holy Roman Empire than the European Union. In some ways, therefore, a thorough understanding of medieval power politics and how rulers came to centralize state authority would be of greater value to the international advisors sent to the Karzai government than a background in constitutional law or regulatory reform. At least in medieval Europe, the centralized state emerged victorious." Thomas Barfield | Foreign Policy

Juan Cole in the context of atrocious attacks on Ahmadi places of worship in Lahore| Informed Comment

"Although Israel has not issued any official reaction, the officials saw three main changes between the first draft circulated by Turkey and the final draft adopted, which they credit to the work of the U.S. delegation. First, there was no mention of an independent investigation. Second, there was no time limit placed on the investigation. Third, there was no direct condemnation of Israel. " U.S., Israeli officials scramble to contain blowback from flotilla raid | The Cable

"But though Turkey is a nation of faith, just like the United States, the country has little or no appetite for radicalism or theocracy, even among the most religiously conservative segments of society. On the contrary, major religious conservative elements such as the AK Party and the Gulen movement are openly pushing for more democracy in Turkey. Under AK Party rule, Turkey has met the Copenhagen political criteria, which determine if a country is eligible to join the European Union, and subsequently began accession talks with the EU in 2005. The Gulen movement sponsors its annual Abant Platform series of talks, where a diverse group of intellectuals and public officials discuss how to improve the country's democracy. They are not without fault, but militarists treat almost every influential pious group as Islamists with a hidden agenda. " Foreign Policy

"In other words, there's a huge unwillingness on the Israeli right to face reality -- that Israel is fast losing friends and allies in the world, and that this government in Jerusalem has only accelerated the shift. It's not hard to imagine boycott campaigns gaining momentum, damaging the Israeli economy and isolating the country diplomatically, especially in Europe.

"The one thing that might extricate Israel from this mess is a violent response from the Palestinian side -- which never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Stay tuned." FP Passport

"The "top secret" minutes of meetings between senior officials from the two countries in 1975 show that South Africa's defence minister, PW Botha, asked for the warheads and Shimon Peres, then Israel's defence minister and now its president, responded by offering them "in three sizes"." World news | The Guardian

T]he issue is now on a “short list” of sticking points between the two countries — including some classified counterterrorism programs, a long-running dispute over granting visas to American government workers and contractors in Pakistan, and enhanced intelligence sharing — that have intensified since the failed Times Square car bombing on May 1..." NYTimes.com
[

“The American decision to once again explore the possibility of a unilateral military strike is not a threat,” said a diplomatic source. “It aims at convincing Pakistanis that now is the time to uproot extremists. A failure to do so may lead to an attack on the US soil, which, in turn, could lead to an American military strike inside Pakistan.” DAWN.COM

"But whatever the generals really believe now about Afghan policy, they have had their full say, gotten most of the troops they requested and fought the war essentially their way. It's the President's responsibility to make the final calls — and to create a force-reduction strategy for Afghanistan that protects what will remain of America's interests there. The generals can and should help him do that. After 10 years of war in Afghanistan, American arms, men, women and treasure are needed far more elsewhere." Logic of the Leak - TIME

An America “hardened by war” and “disciplined by a devastating economic crisis,” he argues, cannot sustain extended fighting in both Iraq and Afghanistan, while fulfilling other commitments at home and abroad. NYTimes.com

Are our American friends seeing the conspiracy here? U.S. Is a Top Villain in Pakistan’s Conspiracy Talk - NYTimes.com

This is the latest in a series of developments that suggest the U.S. military is working hard to build capacity to deal with asymmetric challenges asymmetrically. U.S. Is Said to Expand Secret Military Acts in Mideast Region - NYTimes.com

"Telepathic helmets. Grid-computing swarms of cyborg insects, some for surveillance, some with lethal stingers. New cognitive-enhancement drugs. (What? Adderall and Provigil aren't good enough for you?) Lethal autonomous robots. Brain-chip-to-weapon platform control systems on a "future force warrior" platform. American military technology is getting very frisky." Brad Allenby - Slate Magazine

“Pakistan is sincere and committed in combating terrorism and is ready to expand its anti-militancy operations to North Waziristan. However, for that we will require time to do the necessary shaping up. The operation will be started according to our own judgment,” a senior official told Dawn.... DAWN.COM.

''There is a long and well-documented history of disappearances, illegal detention and of the torture and ill-treatment of those detained, usually to produce information, a confession or compliance,'' the judges said in a ruling issued Tuesday. DAWN.COM | World

“In light of the failed Times Square terrorist attack and other terrorist attacks that trace to the border region, we believe that it is time to redouble our efforts with our allies in Pakistan to close this safe haven and create an environment where we and the Pakistani people can lead safe and productive lives,” a White House official told AFP. DAWN.COM | World

"...Shahzad's alleged militant pedigree reconciles very poorly with the ineptitude of his attempted attack, which raises more questions about his background than it answers." Art Keller | The AfPak Channel

Mr. Shahzad glared when Mr. Haq once asked him to fetch water to mix with his whiskey, a family friend recalled. “He wanted to change his father,” said the classmate. NYTimes.com

"A senior defense official said that the Pentagon decided just recently not to renew the contract, which expires at the end of May. While the Pentagon declined to discuss the program, it appears that commanders in the field are in no rush to shut it down because some of the information has been highly valuable, particularly in protecting troops against enemy attacks." NYTimes.com

"[Most terrorist groups] ended for one of two reasons: They were penetrated and eliminated by local police and intelligence agencies (40 percent), or they reached a peaceful political accommodation with their government (43 percent)....

"In 10 percent of cases, terrorist groups ended because they achieved victory. Military force led to the end of terrorist groups in 7 percent of cases." RAND Research Brief | How Terrorist Groups End: Implications for Countering al Qa'ida.

"If we want Times Square to be safer from terrorists, we need to start by helping make Pakistan safer as well." NYTimes.com Op-Ed Columnist NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF.

"Pakistan, which has been at the center of the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan over the past eight years, is determined to shape the outcome in a way that restores much of the influence it lost in Kabul when the Taliban, its erstwhile proxy, was defeated by the U.S. and its allies. Afghan Taliban Endgame Talks Set for Karzai's U.S. Visit - TIME.

Pakistan Taliban, Blamed for Times Square Bomb Attempt, Not on Official Terror Group List - Metropolis - WSJ

"But doing nothing may no longer be an option, now that the Obama Administration is blaming the failed Times Square bomb attack on the Pakistani Taliban (TTP). TIME.

Clinton on '60 Minutes' | Madam Secretary

Declassified Blog - Newsweek.com.

"The Times said the new pressure from Washington was characterized by the Pakistani and US officials as a sharp turnaround from the relatively polite encouragement adopted by the administration of President Barack Obama in recent months.

It came amid increasing debate within the administration about how to proceed in the war on terror that included even “a boots-on-the-ground presence” on Pakistani soil..."

DAWN.COM | World | US warns Pakistan over terror: report

DAWN.COM | Pakistan

"Drone attacks ... have devastated militant operations in Waziristan while causing far less collateral damage than Pakistan Army operations." Pervez Hoodbhoy via DAWN.COM | Editorial

"We've made it very clear that if, heaven-forbid, an attack like this that we can trace back to Pakistan were to have been successful, there would be very severe consequences". Sec. Clinton on Pakistan and The War on Terror - 60 Minutes - CBS News

"[H]ow could someone like Khawaja—a self-described confidant of Osama bin Laden who relished affiliations with the Taliban of old—have ended up dead in a ditch, murdered by the kind of people he was previously accused of aiding? And what does that say about the dramatic cultural changes underway in Pakistan?" In A Ditch | The New Republic

Still Partners - By Dick Lugar | Foreign Policy.

"...Assistant Secretary of State Philip Crowley said he would not allow the department’s platform to be used to suggest that all terrorist activities in the world originated in that country." DAWN.COM

"The U.S. is planning to give Pakistan a detailed request for help with the case...." Daily brief | The AfPak Channel.

"Azaz Syed has been working on several important stories, most of which throw light on the role of the armed forces, the intelligence agencies and even militant organisations besides some political parties and influential personalities in Pakistan." DAWN.COM.

"[I]n a war, you don’t need to know the name of someone on the other side before you take a shot." Danger Room | Wired.com

This Foreign Policy Magazine's AfPak Channel story leads with a New America Foundation policy paper that 'outlines how the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region emerged as al-Qaeda’s central operational hub for plotting attacks in the West after 9/11 through the eyewitness accounts of Western militants who allegedly received terrorist training in the region.'

Says the executive summary of the paper:

"In a majority of the serious terrorist plots against the homelands of Western countries since 2004, plotters were either directed or trained by established jihadist groups in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region, demonstrating the sustained threat to the West posed by the terrorist safe haven. In 38 percent of the serious terrorist plots in the West during this period, al-Qaeda or an allied group in Pakistan provided operational direction to plotters."

Policy recommendations? "High priority and more resources should be given to reducing their safe haven in Pakistan." The Militant Pipeline | NewAmerica.net.

"There are only a few organizations in Pakistan that could provide training, and the Pakistani Taliban is . . . one that has an ax to grind with us." Washington Post story.

The Time story 'The Times Square Suspect's Pakistan Connection' includes some interesting 'analysis'. Let's take a look.

"It's unclear if [TTP] is even capable of extending its reach overseas beyond the Afghanistan and Pakistan arena — or why it would want to, given that it is facing a punishing Pakistani military offensive in its tribal sanctuaries north of the capital, Islamabad. It has also been handicapped by U.S. drone strikes that have effectively crippled its communications capability and maneuverability."

Well, what would it take to clarify the TTP capability to strike ' overseas beyond the Afghanistan and Pakistan arena'? TTP naval task force or mountain division deploying overseas? They are no regular force; networked (however loosely) individuals is all they need to strike. As regards motivation of the individuals, tribal people are by definition driven by tribal loyalties. Time doubts the TTP capability to strike in the US; I am sure the average head of a Pakhtun clan - adequately motivated or provoked - can strike almost anywhere in the world.

Why TTP would want to strike in the U.S. is an utter no-brainer; because (a) the TTP is taking a fair bit of punishment from the Pakistani military and (b) facing devastating drone strikes from the U.S. They are a guerrilla outfit - who should be expected to (a) take ops away from regular warfare and (b) at least appear to be striking at the real enemy. The Time analysis clearly turns this argument on its head.

Where does this 'analysis' lead? Let's see if the context helps:
1. Failed Times Square bombing attempt
2. Taliban claim responsibility

3. U.S. authorities discount the claim as propaganda
4. Investigator link a naturalized U.S. citizen of Pakistani origin to the attack
5. 'He also claimed to have been trained at a terror camp in ...Waziristan'
6. Investigators hedge against their earlier stance by saying they are considering all possibilities
7. Time analysis appears to exonerate TTP...

Interesting, no?

"In coming years, President Obama will decide whether to deploy a new class of weapons capable of reaching any corner of the earth from the United States in under an hour and with such accuracy and force that they would greatly diminish America’s reliance on its nuclear arsenal."
U.S. Faces Choice on New Weapons for Fast Strikes - NYTimes.com

"[I]f the public ever saw them, it would conclude that "enhanced interrogation" is just another name for torture."

What is more: "[W]hat's really too bad is that Durham hasn't been tasked with explaining the broader mystery of why, in the first place, the CIA is even interrogating prisoners of war. The 1947 National Security Act established the CIA as a civilian spy agency, not as some Pentagon backroom where you get to do things you don't want the American people to find out about."

Why Were CIA Interrogation Tapes Destroyed? Still a Mystery - TIME

DAWN.COM Pakistan GHQ postpones security briefing

But - '"Establishment," the U.N. is looking at you', says Huma Imtiaz of The AfPak Channel

REUTERS: U.S. Special Operations Forces on a training mission in Pakistan are playing an expanded but largely unseen role in the country's counterinsurgency campaign, working with paramilitary units to 'hold and build' tribal areas as militants are cleared out. (U.S. military playing expanded role in Pakistan)

ME: U.S. military is flourishing in support role in Pakistan's counterinsurgency campaign. Where does that lead us?

"The only way to prevent nuclear terrorism is to keep all nuclear materials under strict control. That will take strong and consistent leadership by Mr. Obama and like-minded leaders, beginning with strong commitments at this week’s summit meeting." NYTimes.com Editorial.

Amazing New Statesman Poll - and amazing outcome as of now.
* 51% are saying yes
* 49% are saying no

"India should embrace Pakistan's call for a composite dialogue that puts all the issues -- including Kashmir and terrorism -- on the table." Huffington Post (blog) - NewsTrust.net.

"In order to protect the people from Taliban they would have to deploy the bulk of their forces in the cleared areas. This has defensive c

Publish Post

onnotations. It would leave the initiative with the Taliban." DAWN.COM | Editorial.

"He knows that what I am saying is true; he just doesn't like anyone calling attention to the elephant in the room. Plus, he knows that plenty of other people can see the elephant too, and are beginning to realize that the lobby is pushing an agenda that is not in America's interest." On "Dual Loyalty" (2): A Response to Robert Satloff | Stephen M. Walt.

"In what may be the Obama Administration’s single most significant reduction in national security secrecy to date, the Department of Defense this week published the first unclassified Nuclear Posture Review." Secrecy News.

"...GBC wanted to sell two atomic absorption spectrophotometers, which analyse liquid samples, to a Pakistani engineering firm but had been unable to convince Canberra they could not be used to analyse metals used for centrifuges and missiles." AFP.

"The only prisoner known to have died in the CIA's network of secret prisons once rescued Hamid Karzai, wading through rocket and small-arms fire to take the wounded future president to safety in Pakistan, according to his brother and former associates." Yahoo! News.

“We take direct actions against terrorists in the intelligence community,” [director of national intelligence, Dennis C. Blair] said. “If we think that direct action will involve killing an American, we get specific permission to do that.” NYTimes.com:

"The AfPak strategy constitutes a recognition that U.S. national security now depends upon producing internal change in states -- the kind of change development assistance (as opposed to, say, regime change) is designed to bring about." NewsTrust.net.

"But progress could perhaps be made if Washington delicately reduces New Delhi's expectations for influence in Kabul, facilitates Pakistan's partial movement in favor of 'good' actors in Afghanistan and push against the Afghan Taliban, and prods both India and Pakistan further along the negotiation table." By Arif Rafiq | The AfPak Channel:

The Afghan government was holding secret talks with the Taliban's No. 2 when he was captured in Pakistan, and the arrest infuriated President Hamid Karzai, according to one of Karzai's advisers. The Associated Press via Google.

"A 50-year mystery over the 'cursed bread' of Pont-Saint-Esprit, which left residents suffering hallucinations, has been solved after a writer discovered the US had spiked the bread with LSD as part of an experiment." Telegraph.

"Abdul Zahir, the Afghan tribal leader chosen to bring law and order to the area cleared by the joint US and British troop surge, has previously been jailed for attempted murder." Telegraph.

"Hezb-i-Islami's leader, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, a ruthless mujahedin commander who fought the Soviets and later shelled Kabul in the early 1990s, killing thousands, is known to be Pakistan's man. Two weeks ago, Pakistani police arrested the Taliban's shadow governor in Baghlan who had slipped across the border. Taliban fighters may have suspected that Hekmatyar had something to do with their regional chief's capture." TIME.

"Having captured the town, NATO and Afghan officials face a quandary that, if mishandled, could jeopardize the operation's goal of turning Marjah's people against the Taliban. Local farmers are just a month away from harvesting the area's primary crop, opium poppy. Playing by the rules, the crop should be destroyed, but such an action could swiftly turn the local population against the Western alliance, and the 'government in a box' they brought to Marjah. Says one farmer, Mohammd Rahim Khan, 'I spent lots of money on my field and so did my neighbors. If the government officials destroy the fields, nearly all the people will rise against them.' That's why, according to highly placed Afghan officials, U.S. commander Gen. Stanley McChrystal opposes wiping out this particular poppy harvest." TIME.

"Despite Pakistan’s recent arrest of several high-level Taliban commanders, men like Colonel Imam sit at the center of the questions that linger around what Pakistan’s actual intentions are toward the Taliban." NYTimes.com.

"As neocon propagandists pursue their goal of riling up the American public against some new foreign threat, that effort requires highlighting certain facts (and even fictions). But the propagandists equally must make sure that many inconvenient truths are conveniently forgotten. Otherwise the alleged threat might not seem all that unusual or threatening." Consortiumnews.com.

Al-Qaeda central: the definitive guide | The AfPak Channel

"Doctors in Iraq's war-ravaged enclave of Falluja are dealing with up to 15 times as many chronic deformities in infants, compared to a year ago, and a spike in early life cancers that may be linked to toxic materials left over from the fighting." The Guardian.

A media blitz against 'conspiracy theorists' among Pakistani media people is getting fresh impetus. It started months ago from the pages of NYT and Washington Post - but is coming to flower in Pakistan. The intent? To hush up, malign, and discourage any mention of foreign clandestine operations in the Pakistani media.

Early on, the crusade to sanctify the Pakistani media of conspiracy theories was the fare of anonymous blogs. Now, with NFP and Ayesha Siddiqa weighing in just last week, it has become mainstream. The trend begs examination.

For instance, are the writers of such articles authority on clandestine operations? Or is it that they can account for every one of the 75 billion dolllars the US spends on intelligance annually? Mind you, the $1.5 billion annual injection sanctioned by the Kerry-Luger law is about remaking Pakistan - the world's sixth most populous nation. What could $75 billion spent on intelligance not achieve?

How much of the U.S. inteligance spending would flow to Pakistan? Not a dollar, the cinspiracy-bashers would seem to argue. On the other hand, when the U.S. is spending billions to help remake a pivotal ally, spending a few hundred million dollars on psyops would be the most logical thing to do; after all, it's about remaking.

One wonders why nobody is running about castigating, mocking, and demonising David E. Sanger and NYT for spreading the conspiracy theory (January 2009) that the U.S. is undertaking 'new efforts, some of them experimental, to undermine electrical systems, computer systems and other networks on which Iran relies' for nuclear resreach and development.

"Inside a secret detention center in an industrial pocket of the Pakistani capital called I/9, teams of Pakistani and American spies have kept a watchful eye on a senior Taliban leader captured last month. With the other eye, they watch each other." NYTimes.com.

"[W]hile U.S.-Pakistan relations are better now, they are still fraught. As U.S. special envoy Richard Holbrooke, a veteran of the Balkans and other bruising diplomatic acts, remarked wearily on Feb. 18, during his seventh swing through Islamabad, 'This is the most complicated relation with an ally that I've ever experienced. I don't want to mislead you; it's still fragile.'"TIME

"Every day, the U.S. military spends $1.75 billion, much of it on big ships, big guns, and big battalions that are not only not needed to win the wars of the present, but are sure to be the wrong approach to waging the wars of the future." Foreign Policy Magazine.

"Contrary to initial U.S. suggestions that it signals reduced Pakistani support for the Taliban, the detention of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the operational leader of the Afghan Taliban, represents a shift by Pakistan to more open support for the Taliban in preparation for a peace settlement and U.S. withdrawal." Gareth Porter via Antiwar.com

"In fairness to the Pakistanis, and in the interest of not deluding ourselves into believing that all will be easy from this point onward, several of their common concerns should be registered. For starters, they still doubt our real commitment to the region, having heard President Obama’s December 1 speech in which he promised the beginning of a U.S. drawdown in Afghanistan by July 2011, and having watched us leave the region behind on several previous occasions. They also tell us not to feel too charitable about the aid packages we offer them, estimating that in their eyes the U.S.-led Afghan campaign has cost them more than it has helped them, in financial and other terms." Michael O'Hanlon writing for the National Interest online.

"Reports are now emerging that Mullah Baradar may have been detained earlier than the dates cited in the original story in the New York Times.

"It's also still not clear how much involvement US intelligence had in the raid and how much access they have to this valuable source, who has an enormous store of knowledge about the movement, including their contacts with the ISI." BBC report by Lyse Doucet.

"Finally, there is only so much the Americans and their NATO partners can do. The rest is up to the Afghans themselves. Despite years of work, the Afghan Army cannot sustain itself in the field, the police are loathed in nearly every place they work, and the government of Mr. Karzai has only a few serious worldwide rivals in corruption and graft." NYT News Analysis.

"The language and vocabulary emanating from Washington and London toward Islamabad has changed in recent months, a prerequisite for creating greater trust among the coalition partners, according to Pakistani generals. Let us see what wonders the changed vocabulary can work in the coming months." Imtiaz Gul for the AfPak Channel.

"Pakistan’s army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, made clear Pakistan’s willingness to mediate at a meeting late last month at NATO headquarters with top American military officials, a senior American military official familiar with the meeting said." NYTimes.com.

DAWN.COM | Front Page | Kayani spells out threat posed by Indian doctrine: "Both India and Pakistan appear to have firmly lapsed into the old pattern of highlighting the differences between them and the threats they face from each other, while nominally leaving the door open to an improvement in relations if one side addresses the other’s concerns."

The Authoritative Time line from the AFPAK Channel

Daily brief | The AfPak Channel

Steve Coll quoted in the NYT's Lede blog: "[T]he United States is essentially waging a proxy war against its own ally. The Taliban are a proxy of the government of Pakistan. We are an ally of the government of Pakistan. We are fighting the Taliban. In the end, the Taliban will be defeated strategically when the government of Pakistan makes a strategic decision that its future does not lie in partnership with Islamic extremists." Complete post: Cutting a Deal With the Taliban.

NYTimes.com: "Washington must also do more to help lessen tensions between Pakistan and India. That may be the best chance of persuading Islamabad that it can and must focus more of its troops and attention on fighting all of the Taliban."

RFE/RL launches radio station in Pakistan’s Pashtun heartland

"But any evaluation that merely blames the analysts, the intelligence-gatherers, or even both of their abilities to communicate misses the point: Major parts of the system itself are broken, and no surface-level changes will fix that. Foreign Policy:

"[Lurking behind the FOB Chapman deaths] and the man who caused them lay a bigger American war story that went largely untold. It was a tale of a new-style battlefield that the American public knows remarkably little about, and that bears little relationship to the Afghan War as we imagine it or as our leaders generally discuss it."AlterNet has the story.

This AlterNet piece references all the sources.

He was a former al-Qaeda operative arrested and then recruited by the Jordanian intelligence services - who also lost an officer in the FOB Chapman attack. The story at HuffPost.

Jeremy Scahill, writing for HuffPost.

“[C.I.A. staff at FOB Chapman in Khost] have recently been on a big Haqqani binge,” said the Pentagon consultant. “I would be really shocked if the bombing on Wednesday wasn’t some kind of retaliation”, a New York Times report quotes a Pentagon consultant as saying.

NYT Correspondent Mark Mazzetti says "C.I.A. personnel regularly take foreign agents onto the base before sending them on intelligence collection missions ...across the border into Pakistan", and comments: "The fact that the agency is in effect running a war in Pakistan...." Read the whole story here.

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